Bleacher Report’s Expert Week 14 NFL Picks…..
Our Bleacher Report NFL experts had to sort through a number of quarterback injuries for Week 14, as well as a few games that will pit opposing backup signal-callers against one another. This week sounds like it will be quite the roller coaster.
With all the changes and uncertainty surrounding quarterbacking, our B/R expert panel—which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski, and Maurice Moton—as well as editors Wes O’Donnell and Ian Hanford—manoeuvred through the 15-game schedule. They remained competitive despite those wrinkles.
Recognize as you go through these selections that a number of teams will have to contend with the possibility of missing the playoffs, which could lead to surprising results. Even though the consensus choices might seem obvious, experts who disagreed with the majority offered some insightful analysis that might persuade you to support the underdog.
Let’s start by looking at the overall standings both straight up and against the spread for Week 13, with the results in parenthesis. Our group went.500 with an ATS tie in Week 13, and we did well in predicting the winners.
ATS Tables
1. Gagnon: 7-5-1 (111-79-3)
2. Moton: 8-4-1 (106-84-3)
T-3. 104-86-3 (5-7-1) Davenport
Hanford, T-3, 104-86-3 (8-4-1)
5. Knox: 5-7-1 (95-95-3).
6. 94-96-3 (5-7-1) Sobleski
7. O’Donnell: 7-5-1) 93-97-3
Picks made by consensus: 105-85-3 (6-6-1)
SU Tables
1. Hanford 8–5 129–64
2. Moton: 8–5–127–66
3. Knox: 9–4; 121–72
Gagnon: 73-120 (7-6)
5. Davenport: 8-5; 119-74
6. O’Donnell: 9–4; 115–78
7. Sobleski: 6-7 (114–79)
Selects in agreement: 125–68 (8–5)
Selects in agreement: 125–68 (8–5)
The lines are from DraftKings as of 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 6. Visit DraftKings to see the most recent lines. The Action Network is the source of information about trends in public betting. Team Rankings provides ATS records.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) vs. New England Patriots (2-10)
Line for DraftKings: Pittsburgh -6
On Thursday night, bettors who prefer points but crave action should make their wager and close their eyes.
The New England Patriots play stingy defense, ranking third against the run and tied for the fourth-fewest touchdowns allowed (13) in the league.
Conversely, the Patriots last week made history by being the first team since 1938 to lose three straight games while holding their opponents to 10 points or fewer. Moreover, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, running back Rhamondre Stevenson will not play on Thursday due to a high ankle sprain.
For the second straight game, the Patriots will start quarterback Bailey Zappe, and the majority of the carries will probably go to running back Ezekiel Elliott because of his worn-out legs.
The Steelers don’t exactly exude confidence offensively either. Mitch Trubisky will start in place of Kenny Pickett, who had surgery on his ankle.
It’s difficult to pick Pittsburgh to cover a six-point spread because Hanford anticipates one touchdown from two offenses that score at least 28 points apiece.
It’s unlikely that either team will muster enough offense to score multiple times, so the first team into the end zone could win this one. In this quarterback duel between Mitch Trubisky and Bailey Zappe, a defensive touchdown might be the quickest route to points. To put it plainly, this matchup is ugly in every way.
Even though the Steelers are more talented overall on both sides of the ball, you can’t put your faith in a team that lost to the Cardinals at home last week by a sleepwalk. There hasn’t been much of a difference in the last four meetings between these two teams—three of them have been decided by a single score. Patriots cover, but the Steelers win.”
Predictions
Davenport: Patriots
Gagnon: Patriots
Hanford: Patriots
Knox: Patriots
Moton: Steelers
O’Donnell: Patriots
Sobleski: Patriots
ATS Consensus:Â Patriots +6
SU Consensus:Â Steelers
Score Prediction:Â Steelers 13, Patriots 9
DK Line: -4.5 for Houston
The New York Jets and Houston Texans have had opposing trends since Week 9. Gang Green has lost five straight games, while the Texans have won four of their past five games.
Zach Wilson, the quarterback for New York, was named the starting quarterback for Sunday’s game against Houston, despite contradictory reports regarding his desire to return to the starting lineup.
In three years, Gang Green has benched Wilson three times. He has completed 59.2 percent of his passes for 1,944 yards, six touchdowns, and seven interceptions this season.
Wilson’s fourth season as a starter won’t be a charm, according to our crew. Everyone predicted Houston to win by a minimum of four touchdowns. Moton gave a speech in support of the popular vote.
What does the term “insanity” mean? With regard to the Jets’ quarterback situation, Moton stated, “it’s doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”
Wilson was benched by Gang Green for a good reason. In six games between Weeks 5 and 11, he threw three interceptions and two touchdown passes.
“With Trevor Siemian, the Jets could have attempted to ignite the offense, but instead they’ll hand the ball to Wilson, who will put up yet another appalling offensive display.
“With Trevor Siemian, the Jets could have attempted to ignite the offense, but instead they’ll hand the ball to Wilson, who will put up yet another appalling offensive display.
“We’ve already seen this film multiple times, so we are aware of its conclusion. The Jets will find it difficult to get past double digits on the scoreboard, and the Texans will cover the spread.”
Forecasts
Davenport: People from Texas
Gagnon: People from Texas
Hanford: People from Texas
Knox: People from Texas
Moto: People from Texas
O’Donnell: People from Texas
Sobleski: People from Texas
ATS Prediction: Texans at -4.5
SU Verdict: Texans
Predicted score: Texans 21, Jets 12.
Chicago Bears (4-8) vs. Detroit Lions (9-3)
DK Line: Three for Detroit
For the second time in three weeks, the Detroit Lions will take on the Chicago Bears. The Bears were on the verge of defeating the Lions on the road in Week 11, trailing 26-14 late in the fourth quarter before losing 31-26. Nonetheless, Chicago covered a 9.5-point spread.
The Lions are favored only slightly in Chicago, where they were defeated 29–22 by the Green Bay Packers at home on Thanksgiving and almost gave up a 21–point lead to the New Orleans Saints in the first quarter.
Some of our experts were uneasy about Detroit’s recent performances, but most predicted the better team to win by a margin greater than a field goal.
For the Lions, Davenport believes he’ll perspire through this game, but he doesn’t see how the Bears offense can match the sixth-best scoring attack in the league.
“I’m not able to lie. I’m nervous about the Lions, and not just because Gagnon chose Chicago; I believe he’s part of the Illuminati, influencing NFL game outcomes (I might have to watch less YouTube). Lately, the Detroit defense has been… bad. Perhaps not as bad as the 2022 Lions, but bad enough that Detroit fans’ anxiety is on par with that of Michigan fans upon learning they would be playing Alabama rather than Florida State.
The Bears’ defense is also very strong, particularly against the run. However, if their Week 12 victory over the Vikings (12–10) was.
“The Lions aren’t a legit Super Bowl contender (Sorry—they just aren’t.), but they’re a fair bit more than three points better than a Bears team whose best bet is stacking losses, firing Matt Eberflus and then drafting Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.”
DK Line: Seven Baltimore
The Los Angeles Rams have won three straight after getting off to a 3-6 start. In their last two games, they have scored 37 and 36 points.
The Rams offense has benefited greatly from running back Kyren Williams’s return from an ankle injury. Over the past two weeks, he has amassed 316 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns.
The Rams appear capable of covering a seven-point spread with Williams in the backfield and wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the outside, but our crew—save for Sobleski—doesn’t think so.
According to Gagnon, the Rams have destroyed lower-tier teams and organizations with backup quarterbacks, and a Super Bowl contender might expose them.
The Ravens, who have scored more than 30 points in four straight home games, will give the Rams, who have been taking advantage of a soft stretch in the schedule, a rude awakening when they play them on the road. Baltimore can’t play around here, and Los Angeles isn’t as good as its record.”
DK Line: -5.5 for New Orleans
It’s possible that Derek Carr won’t play in his first game as a Saint. It’s his second concussion in three weeks that he’s in the protocol. It’s important to remember, though, that Carr only had limited practice on Wednesday.
While the Saints might start Jameis Winston and bench Carr in favor of Taysom Hill (foot and hand injuries), Knox believes neither player alone or in combination will help New Orleans cover the spread.
It is difficult for me to think that the Saints will easily win, but I also don’t think the Panthers can win. Derek Carr is back in the concussion protocol, so I believe that New Orleans finds it difficult.
Carolina has an advantage in this game because New Orleans has had trouble stopping the run and running the ball on a regular basis. This one plays out a lot like the Panthers-Bucs game last week, in my opinion. New Orleans wins crucially to maintain its hopes of making the playoffs, while Carolina makes just enough to keep it close.”
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